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【招商宏观】美俄危局仍无碍外资流入——全球视野看中国资产周报(2018年第14期)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年02月22日 10:59:02
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(VIX指)(数)(继)(续)(维)(持)(高)(位)(震)(荡)(,4月)(11日)(收)(于)(20.24,全)(球)(避)(险)(情)(绪)(仍)(强)(。美)(俄)(关)(系)(持)(续)(紧)(张)(,继)(3月)(份)(美)(英)(等)(西)(方)(国)(家)(驱)(逐)(俄)(罗)(斯)(外)(交)(官)(之)(后)(,美)(国)(近)(日)(表)(示)(将)(对)(叙)(利)(亚)(动)(武)(,美)(俄)(关)(系)(进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(,导)(致)(黄)(金)(价)(格)(走)(高)(而)(俄)(罗)(斯)(资)(本)(市)(场)(出)(现)(剧)(烈)(调)(整)(。
4月)(2-11日)(,资)(金)(面)(仍)(旧)(维)(持)(较)(为)(宽)(松)(的)(局)(面)(,上)(周)(央)(行)(通)(过)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(小)(幅)(回)(笼)(资)(金)(200亿)(元)(,中)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(下)(行)(3bp至)(3.71%。美)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(则)(明)(显)(抬)(升)(5bp至)(2.79%。中)(美)(利)(差)(相)(较)(3月)(30日)(明)(显)(收)(窄)(9bp至)(92bp。
中)(国)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(交)(易)(量)(上)(周)(继)(续)(小)(幅)(回)(升)(。交)(易)(量)(指)(数)(4月)(份)(反)(弹)(走)(高)(,未)(来)(中)(国)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(形)(势)(可)(能)(出)(现)(边)(际)(改)(善)(。在)(我)(国)(国)(际)(收)(支)(形)(势)(趋)(稳)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,外)(管)(局)(11日)(发)(文)(《扩)(大)(金)(融)(市)(场)(开)(放)(稳)(步)(推)(进)(合)(格)(境)(内)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(QDII制)(度)(实)(施)(》,要)(点)(如)(下)(:每)(月)(定)(期)(公)(布)(QDII额)(度)(标)(志)(着)(QDII制)(度)(重)(新)(恢)(复)(更)(新)(;外)(管)(局)(将)(根)(据)(各)(家)(机)(构)(情)(况)(考)(虑)(QDII额)(度)(,规)(则)(公)(开)(透)(明)(;外)(管)(局)(此)(举)(是)(切)(实)(落)(实)(习)(总)(书)(记)(博)(鳌)(论)(坛)(上)(关)(于)(扩)(大)(对)(外)(开)(放)(要)(求)(的)(举)(措)(。
招)(商)(外)(汇)(供)(求)(强)(弱)(指)(标)(边)(际)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,但)(目)(前)(仍)(相)(较)(3月)(份)(出)(现)(回)(落)(。从)(亚)(洲)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(资)(金)(流)(动)(指)(标)(的)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,短)(期)(内)(亚)(洲)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(与)(中)(国)(均)(面)(临)(着)(较)(为)(有)(利)(的)(国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(入)(环)(境)(,但)(年)(中)(可)(能)(再)(度)(承)(压)(。
截)(至)(4月)(11日)((本)(周)(三)(),港)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(相)(较)(3月)(30日)(进)(一)(步)(贬)(值)(21pips至)(7.8499,连)(续)(多)(日)(维)(持)(在)(7.85附)(近)(。本)(周)(四)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(触)(及)(7.85弱)(方)(承)(诺)(,港)(美)(利)(差)(近)(期)(再)(度)(走)(扩)(,套)(息)(交)(易)(给)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(带)(来)(了)(较)(大)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(。金)(管)(局)(若)(最)(终)(不)(得)(不)(入)(市)(干)(预)(汇)(率)(买)(入)(港)(元)(,则)(将)(收)(紧)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(并)(明)(显)(抬)(升)(HIBOR利)(率)(,这)(可)(能)(对)(港)(股)(市)(场)(造)(成)(负)(面)(冲)(击)(。
4月)(2-6日)(,陆)(股)(通)(累)(计)(流)(入)(资)(金)(43.18亿)(元)(。本)(周)(前)(三)(日)((4月)(9-11日)()陆)(股)(通)(继)(续)(累)(计)(大)(幅)(流)(入)(资)(金)(75.60亿)(元)(,全)(球)(避)(险)(情)(绪)(的)(升)(温)(并)(未)(明)(显)(影)(响)(外)(资)(的)(增)(持)(热)(情)(。近)(7日)(外)(资)(继)(续)(主)(要)(增)(持)(建)(材)((海)(螺)(水)(泥)()、食)(品)(饮)(料)((五)(粮)(液)(、贵)(州)(茅)(台)(、伊)(利)(股)(份)()、金)(融)((中)(国)(平)(安)()、医)(药)((恒)(瑞)(医)(药)()等)(板)(块)(,小)(幅)(减)(持)(汽)(车)((比)(亚)(迪)()、交)(运)((上)(海)(机)(场)()等)(。
根)(据)(中)(债)(登)(与)(上)(清)(所)(最)(新)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(,境)(外)(机)(构)(3月)(份)(增)(持)(人)(民)(币)(债)(券)(282亿)(元)(,其)(中)(增)(持)(国)(债)(212亿)(元)(,减)(持)(政)(金)(债)(6亿)(元)(,增)(持)(同)(业)(存)(单)(16亿)(元)(。
央)(行)(上)(周)(通)(过)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(小)(幅)(净)(回)(笼)(资)(金)(200亿)(元)(,资)(金)(面)(依)(旧)(维)(持)(较)(为)(宽)(松)(的)(局)(面)(。DR007上)(周)(明)(显)(下)(降)(43bp,R007下)(降)(136bp。非)(银)(机)(构)(面)(临)(的)(融)(资)(情)(况)(改)(善)(幅)(度)(更)(大)(。
4月)(11日)(中)(国)(10年)(国)(债)(利)(率)(收)(于)(3.7109%,相)(较)(3月)(30日)(下)(降)(3bp。短)(端)(收)(益)(率)(下)(行)(幅)(度)(相)(对)(更)(大)(,导)(致)(期)(限)(利)(差)(抬)(升)(5bp至)(47bp。
不)(同)(等)(级)(信)(用)(利)(差)(同)(步)(走)(扩)(,截)(至)(4月)(11日)(,高)(等)(级)(信)(用)(利)(差)(相)(较)(3月)(30日)(走)(扩)(1bp,中)(低)(等)(级)(信)(用)(利)(差)(则)(继)(续)(明)(显)(走)(扩)(15bp。
上)(周)(中)(国)(股)(票)(市)(场)(再)(度)(出)(现)(明)(显)(调)(整)(,上)(周)(单)(周)(上)(证)(综)(指)(下)(跌)(37.79点)(,跌)(幅)(为)(1.19%,上)(证)(50指)(数)(跌)(幅)(相)(对)(较)(小)(为)(-0.73%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(则)(再)(度)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(3.35%。本)(周)(前)(三)(日)(上)(证)(综)(指)(反)(弹)(2.46%,上)(证)(50表)(现)(突)(出)(而)(创)(业)(板)(则)(继)(续)(维)(持)(弱)(势)(。本)(周)(四)(盘)(中)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(暂)(均)(收)(跌)(。
在)(我)(们)(所)(选)(取)(的)(指)(数)(样)(本)(中)(,所)(有)(股)(指)(上)(周)(均)(基)(本)(出)(现)(下)(跌)(,美)(股)(与)(A股)(跌)(幅)(相)(对)(较)(大)(。本)(周)(除)(巴)(西)(股)(市)(之)(外)(,其)(它)(主)(要)(股)(指)(本)(周)(截)(至)(周)(三)(收)(盘)(均)(出)(现)(明)(显)(反)(弹)(,但)(周)(四)(受)(到)(美)(俄)(矛)(盾)(升)(级)(的)(影)(响)(全)(球)(主)(要)(股)(指)(再)(度)(陷)(入)(调)(整)(,风)(险)(事)(件)(的)(再)(度)(升)(级)(将)(对)(权)(益)(资)(产)(产)(生)(明)(显)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。
近)(来)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(性)(有)(所)(增)(强)(,4月)(12日)(盘)(中)(报)(6.2767,相)(较)(3月)(30日)(收)(盘)(累)(计)(小)(幅)(贬)(值)(34pips。在)(岸)(市)(场)(的)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(目)(前)(已)(进)(一)(步)(减)(弱)(至)(0.9%。再)(次)(重)(申)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(双)(向)(波)(动)(是)(市)(场)(供)(需)(力)(量)(决)(定)(的)(自)(然)(结)(果)(,从)(现)(在)(来)(看)(央)(行)(并)(未)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(施)(加)(明)(显)(干)(预)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(双)(向)(波)(动)(乃)(至)(最)(终)(实)(现)(清)(洁)(浮)(动)(,将)(是)(趋)(势)(。
近)(期)(美)(元)(指)(数)(冲)(高)(回)(落)(小)(幅)(走)(软)(,亚)(洲)(货)(币)(整)(体)(出)(现)(一)(定)(程)(度)(升)(值)(,但)(受)(到)(避)(险)(情)(绪)(的)(影)(响)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(货)(币)(则)(出)(现)(贬)(值)(,两)(者)(走)(势)(有)(所)(分)(化)(。
全)(球)(视)(野)(看)(中)(国)(资)(产)(周)(报)(系)(列)(:
2018年)(第)(1期)(:《全)(球)(视)(野)(看)(中)(国)(资)(产)(周)(报)(》的)(缘)(起)(与)(框)(架)(
2018年)(第)(2期)(:
2018年)(第)(3期)(:资)(本)(流)(入)(、股)(市)(上)(涨)(、汇)(率)(升)(值)(
2018年)(第)(4期)(:2017年)(外)(资)(买)(了)(多)(少)(股)(票)(?多)(少)(债)(券)(?
2018年)(第)(5期)(:从)(来)(就)(没)(有)(什)(么)(救)(世)(主)(
2018年)(第)(7期)(:春)(节)(期)(间)(全)(球)(股)(市)(普)(涨)(
2018年)(第)(8期)(:从)(“收)(入)(分)(配)(红)(利)(”理)(解)(近)(期)(中)(小)(创)(的)(反)(弹)(
2018年)(第)(9期)(:钝)(化)(的)(美)(股)(冲)(击)(,“猴)(性)(”的)(外)(资)(
2018年)(第)(10期)(:债)(券)(南)(向)(通)(没)(困)(难)(、但)(也)(没)(必)(要)(
2018年)(第)(11期)(:贸)(易)(战)(对)(美)(联)(储)(年)(内)(加)(息)(次)(数)(的)(潜)(在)(影)(响)(
2018年)(第)(12期)(:新)(版)(“广)(场)(协)(议)(”诞)(生)(了)(吗)(?
2018年)(第)(13期)(:动)(荡)(的)(世)(界)(,谁)(能)(独)(善)(其)(身)(?返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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