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移民带来了什么?——人口角度看欧洲经济(海通宏观姜超、李金柳)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月19日 04:22:03
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10分分彩注册平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。移民带来了什么?——人口角度看欧洲经济(海通宏观姜超、李金柳)

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(今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(欧)(洲)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(势)(头)(强)(劲)(。一)(季)(度)(欧)(元)(区)(GDP实)(际)(增)(速)(达)(2.5%,复)(苏)(情)(况)(好)(于)(美)(、日)(,而)(欧)(元)(区)(的)(失)(业)(率)(也)(下)(降)(到)(9.3%,是)(09年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。今)(年)(欧)(元)(区)(和)(主)(要)(国)(家)(的)(制)(造)(业)(PMI上)(升)(势)(头)(也)(十)(分)(强)(劲)(,创)(下)(最)(近)(六)(年)(的)(新)(高)(,德)(国)(制)(造)(业)(PMI更)(高)(达)(59.6%。
固)(然)(,持)(续)(的)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(刺)(激)(了)(欧)(洲)(复)(苏)(,但)(跳)(出)(短)(期)(的)(政)(策)(,一)(些)(长)(期)(因)(素)(是)(否)(也)(给)(欧)(洲)(的)(复)(苏)(带)(来)(了)(积)(极)(作)(用)(呢)(?我)(们)(知)(道)(,驱)(动)(经)(济)(长)(期)(增)(长)(的)(根)(本)(动)(力)(无)(非)(是)(人)(口)(、资)(本)(和)(技)(术)(进)(步)(。资)(本)(是)(长)(期)(积)(累)(的)(结)(果)(,而)(技)(术)(进)(步)(提)(高)(全)(要)(素)(生)(产)(率)(也)(是)(相)(对)(缓)(慢)(和)(连)(续)(的)(过)(程)(。从)(2009年)(开)(始)(,欧)(盟)(0-14岁)(人)(口)(数)(量)(止)(跌)(,2014年)(至)(今)(明)(显)(回)(升)(,这)(说)(明)(欧)(洲)(的)(人)(口)(结)(构)(发)(生)(着)(变)(化)(。
1.2人)(口)(驱)(动)(经)(济)(增)(长)(
人)(口)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(作)(用)(体)(现)(在)(诸)(多)(方)(面)(。从)(供)(给)(端)(看)(,劳)(动)(人)(口)(的)(增)(长)(意)(味)(着)(劳)(动)(力)(的)(增)(加)(,教)(育)(水)(平)(和)(技)(能)(的)(提)(高)(又)(意)(味)(着)(劳)(动)(生)(产)(率)(提)(高)(,这)(些)(都)(有)(利)(于)(增)(加)(社)(会)(总)(产)(出)(。而)(从)(需)(求)(端)(看)(,人)(口)(数)(量)(和)(结)(构)(也)(影)(响)(着)(消)(费)(、投)(资)(等)(,进)(而)(影)(响)(社)(会)(总)(需)(求)(。不)(同)(年)(龄)(的)(人)(口)(具)(有)(不)(同)(的)(消)(费)(特)(征)(,而)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(较)(高)(的)(储)(蓄)(率)(,是)(投)(资)(的)(主)(要)(来)(源)(。从)(美)(国)(和)(日)(本)(的)(数)(据)(都)(可)(以)(发)(现)(,其)(投)(资)(在)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)((非)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(数)(与)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(数)(之)(比)()下)(降)(阶)(段)(的)(增)(速)(往)(往)(高)(于)(抚)(养)(比)(上)(升)(时)(。
一)(个)(典)(型)(的)(例)(子)(就)(是)(,年)(轻)(人)(口)(的)(数)(量)(与)(房)(地)(产)(需)(求)(和)(投)(资)(紧)(密)(相)(关)(。以)(日)(本)(为)(例)(,日)(本)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(95年)(前)(保)(持)(上)(升)(,住)(宅)(投)(资)(增)(速)(一)(路)(上)(行)(,96年)(前)(后)(接)(近)(30万)(亿)(日)(元)(;而)(随)(着)(95年)(后)(日)(本)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(从)(8200万)(逐)(渐)(下)(降)(到)(现)(今)(的)(7300万)(左)(右)(,日)(本)(住)(宅)(投)(资)(也)(在)(随)(后)(的)(二)(十)(年)(里)(下)(降)(了)(近)(一)(半)(。
1.3美)(国)(受)(益)(移)(民)(流)(入)(
所)(以)(,人)(口)(的)(数)(量)(和)(结)(构)(对)(当)(地)(经)(济)(存)(在)(着)(长)(期)(的)(影)(响)(,但)(人)(口)(要)(素)(的)(特)(征)(主)(要)(是)(由)(不)(同)(时)(期)(的)(人)(口)(自)(然)(增)(长)(率)(决)(定)(,而)(要)(根)(本)(改)(变)(其)(特)(征)(,只)(有)(通)(过)(提)(高)(生)(育)(率)(来)(达)(到)(,但)(这)(往)(往)(需)(要)(漫)(长)(而)(艰)(难)(的)(努)(力)(。
除)(了)(提)(高)(生)(育)(率)(,外)(来)(移)(民)(也)(可)(以)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(带)(来)(改)(变)(,建)(立)(在)(移)(民)(基)(础)(上)(的)(美)(国)(便)(是)(典)(型)(一)(例)(。美)(国)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(在)(80年)(代)(本)(已)(见)(底)(,但)(由)(于)(移)(民)(的)(贡)(献)(,年)(轻)(人)(口)(得)(到)(扩)(充)(,90年)(代)(抚)(养)(比)(再)(度)(下)(降)(。90年)(代)(初)(及)(2000年)(后)(,美)(国)(每)(年)(获)(得)(绿)(卡)(的)(人)(数)(超)(过)(100万)(,新)(增)(移)(民)(规)(模)(高)(于)(90年)(代)(之)(前)(。对)(比)(1995年)(和)(2010年)(的)(人)(口)(结)(构)(,后)(者)(20-44岁)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(口)(数)(量)(较)(前)(者)(5-29岁)(的)(人)(口)(多)(了)(900万)(,而)(这)(主)(要)(正)(是)(来)(自)(移)(民)(。
事)(实)(证)(明)(,美)(国)(的)(经)(济)(也)(的)(确)(受)(益)(于)(移)(民)(流)(入)(。一)(方)(面)(,移)(民)(增)(加)(了)(美)(国)(劳)(动)(力)(的)(供)(给)(,根)(据)(美)(国)(人)(口)(普)(查)(局)(的)(调)(查)(,移)(民)(在)(美)(国)(总)(人)(口)(、劳)(动)(人)(口)(和)(中)(小)(企)(业)(主)(中)(的)(占)(比)(分)(别)(为)(13%、16%和)(18%,对)(劳)(动)(市)(场)(贡)(献)(显)(著)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,教)(育)(程)(度)(较)(高)(的)(移)(民)(可)(以)(进)(一)(步)(推)(动)(技)(术)(创)(新)(,提)(高)(全)(要)(素)(生)(产)(率)(。09-12年)(美)(国)(的)(大)(学)(及)(以)(上)(学)(历)(人)(口)(中)(,外)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(STEM(即)(科)(学)(、技)(术)(、工)(程)(和)(数)(学)()专)(业)(背)(景)(的)(比)(例)(超)(过)(45%,而)(美)(国)(本)(土)(出)(生)(的)(该)(专)(业)(比)(例)(仅)(有)(28%。STEM是)(与)(技)(术)(进)(步)(关)(系)(最)(直)(接)(的)(专)(业)(,移)(民)(又)(贡)(献)(了)(新)(增)(STEM劳)(动)(者)(中)(的)(大)(部)(分)(,因)(而)(有)(助)(于)(提)(高)(劳)(动)(生)(产)(率)(。
2.欧)(洲)(:老)(龄)(化)(与)(移)(民)(
2.1老)(龄)(化)(压)(力)(渐)(增)(
在)(人)(口)(方)(面)(,老)(龄)(化)(是)(摆)(在)(当)(前)(许)(多)(国)(家)(面)(前)(的)(问)(题)(,而)(欧)(洲)(尤)(其)(严)(重)(。根)(据)(世)(界)(卫)(生)(组)(织)(的)(统)(计)(,2015年)(除)(了)(日)(本)(60岁)(以)(上)(老)(龄)(人)(口)(超)(过)(30%,美)(、欧)(、澳)(洲)(大)(多)(数)(国)(家)(的)(老)(龄)(人)(口)(都)(已)(超)(过)(10%,其)(中)(欧)(美)(主)(要)(国)(家)(老)(龄)(人)(口)(占)(比)(超)(过)(20%,德)(国)(、法)(国)(、瑞)(典)(、芬)(兰)(等)(甚)(至)(超)(过)(25%。
未)(来)(20-30年)(,欧)(洲)(的)(老)(龄)(人)(口)(压)(力)(将)(急)(剧)(增)(加)(。2016年)(欧)(盟)(整)(体)(的)(老)(龄)(人)(口)(占)(比)(达)(19%,远)(高)(于)(美)(国)(。2001到)(2015年)(,欧)(盟)(人)(口)(的)(年)(龄)(中)(位)(数)(从)(38.3岁)(增)(加)(到)(42.6岁)(,且)(40岁)(以)(下)(的)(人)(口)(逐)(段)(减)(少)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(再)(过)(20-30年)(,欧)(洲)(的)(老)(龄)(人)(口)(规)(模)(将)(极)(为)(庞)(大)(。
老)(龄)(化)(的)(加)(重)(将)(导)(致)(劳)(动)(力)(供)(给)(紧)(张)(。由)(于)(战)(后)(婴)(儿)(潮)(贡)(献)(,欧)(洲)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(70年)(代)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(,但)(随)(着)(这)(部)(分)(人)(口)(步)(入)(老)(年)(,欧)(洲)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(08年)(后)(也)(迎)(来)(拐)(点)(,从)(48%上)(升)(到)(16年)(的)(53%,据)(联)(合)(国)(预)(测)(到)(2030年)(或)(高)(达)(60%,接)(近)(日)(本)(当)(前)(的)(水)(平)(,德)(国)(、法)(国)(、芬)(兰)(等)(国)(将)(超)(过)(65%,劳)(动)(人)(口)(短)(缺)(的)(问)(题)(将)(逐)(渐)(凸)(显)(。
2.2欧)(洲)(移)(民)(趋)(升)(
与)(美)(国)(类)(似)(,欧)(洲)(对)(移)(民)(的)(态)(度)(也)(较)(为)(开)(放)(,一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(有)(助)(于)(缓)(解)(部)(分)(国)(家)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(短)(缺)(。近)(年)(欧)(元)(区)(的)(国)(际)(移)(民)(一)(直)(在)(增)(加)(,已)(从)(00年)(的)(2600万)(增)(加)(到)(15年)(的)(4000万)(以)(上)(,在)(总)(人)(口)(中)(的)(占)(比)(也)(上)(升)(到)(12%以)(上)(。而)(在)(欧)(盟)(内)(部)(,劳)(动)(力)(的)(自)(由)(流)(动)(更)(是)(被)(视)(为)(欧)(洲)(一)(体)(化)(的)(重)(要)(目)(标)(,2014年)(所)(有)(欧)(盟)(成)(员)(国)(都)(已)(基)(本)(实)(现)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(的)(相)(互)(开)(放)(。
从)(目)(的)(地)(看)(,欧)(洲)(的)(人)(口)(迁)(移)(流)(向)(以)(传)(统)(的)(发)(达)(国)(家)(为)(主)(。2015年)(末)(德)(国)(、英)(国)(、意)(大)(利)(、西)(班)(牙)(和)(法)(国)(的)(非)(本)(国)(国)(民)(人)(口)(数)(最)(多)(,共)(占)(欧)(盟)(全)(部)(的)(76%,远)(高)(于)(这)(五)(国)(占)(全)(欧)(盟)(总)(人)(口)(的)(比)(重)((63%)。而)(从)(来)(源)(国)(看)(,出)(生)(地)(为)(非)(欧)(盟)(国)(家)(的)(外)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(更)(多)(。截)(至)(16年)(初)(,欧)(盟)(的)(外)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(中)(出)(生)(在)(非)(欧)(盟)(国)(家)(的)(有)(3500万)(,占)(总)(人)(口)(的)(7%左)(右)(,高)(于)(出)(生)(在)(欧)(盟)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(数)(量)(。
3.移)(民)(:带)(来)(什)(么)(改)(变)(?
移)(民)(扩)(充)(了)(欧)(洲)(人)(口)(,增)(加)(了)(消)(费)(需)(求)(与)(劳)(动)(力)(供)(给)(。金)(融)(危)(机)(之)(后)(欧)(盟)(每)(年)(的)(移)(民)(流)(入)(规)(模)(呈)(回)(升)(态)(势)(,15年)(新)(增)(移)(民)(达)(465万)(人)(,超)(过)(07年)(时)(的)(新)(增)(移)(民)(规)(模)(。人)(口)(数)(量)(的)(增)(加)(不)(仅)(意)(味)(着)(这)(部)(分)(移)(民)(将)(带)(来)(额)(外)(的)(消)(费)(需)(求)(,更)(意)(味)(着)(劳)(动)(力)(供)(给)(的)(提)(高)(。而)(劳)(动)(力)(供)(给)(的)(增)(加)(不)(仅)(可)(以)(提)(高)(总)(产)(出)(,更)(有)(利)(于)(专)(业)(化)(分)(工)(的)(扩)(大)(,充)(分)(发)(挥)(该)(国)(的)(比)(较)(优)(势)(。
并)(且)(,移)(民)(群)(体)(的)(一)(大)(特)(征)(是)(年)(轻)(人)(口)(为)(主)(。15年)(底)(欧)(盟)(整)(体)(的)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(达)(53%,而)(15年)(新)(增)(欧)(盟)(籍)(和)(非)(欧)(盟)(籍)(移)(民)(人)(口)(的)(抚)(养)(比)(分)(别)(仅)(有)(30%和)(21%。从)(人)(口)(年)(龄)(结)(构)(的)(金)(字)(塔)(也)(能)(看)(到)(,15年)(新)(增)(的)(移)(民)(中)(,最)(多)(的)(是)(25岁)(左)(右)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(,并)(且)(14岁)(以)(下)(的)(儿)(童)(比)(例)(也)(较)(高)(。
因)(此)(,外)(来)(移)(民)(能)(够)(改)(善)(欧)(盟)(整)(体)(的)(人)(口)(年)(龄)(结)(构)(,一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(延)(缓)(欧)(洲)(老)(龄)(化)(的)(快)(速)(加)(深)(。以)(欧)(盟)(作)(为)(一)(个)(整)(体)(来)(看)(,15年)(末)(欧)(盟)(籍)(人)(口)(的)(年)(龄)(中)(位)(数)(为)(42.6岁)(,而)(15年)(进)(入)(欧)(盟)(的)(新)(增)(移)(民)(年)(龄)(中)(位)(数)(仅)(27.5岁)(,年)(轻)(人)(为)(主)(的)(外)(来)(移)(民)(迅)(速)(补)(充)(了)(欧)(洲)(的)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(,为)(经)(济)(增)(长)(提)(供)(了)(动)(力)(。
4.影)(响)(:经)(济)(贡)(献)(几)(何)(?
4.1德)(国)(与)(英)(国)(的)(证)(据)(
移)(民)(补)(充)(了)(劳)(动)(力)(、改)(善)(了)(人)(口)(结)(构)(,而)(人)(口)(要)(素)(的)(改)(善)(对)(经)(济)(的)(贡)(献)(,可)(以)(从)(德)(、英)(这)(两)(个)(欧)(洲)(最)(大)(移)(民)(国)(家)(找)(到)(证)(据)(。
德)(国)(的)(移)(民)(规)(模)(在)(全)(世)(界)(高)(居)(第)(二)(。截)(至)(15年)(底)(德)(国)(境)(内)(的)(外)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(超)(过)(1100万)(人)(,规)(模)(仅)(次)(于)(美)(国)(,而)(其)(外)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(占)(总)(人)(口)(的)(比)(重)(约)(13%,也)(与)(美)(国)(的)(比)(重)(相)(当)(,因)(而)(移)(民)(已)(是)(其)(人)(口)(的)(重)(要)(组)(成)(。
金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(后)(,移)(民)(的)(流)(入)(显)(著)(减)(缓)(了)(德)(国)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(的)(抬)(升)(。在)(01年)(到)(09年)(,德)(国)(的)(人)(口)(净)(流)(入)(逐)(年)(减)(少)(甚)(至)(负)(增)(,在)(此)(期)(间)(德)(国)(的)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(也)(从)(47.9%快)(速)(上)(升)(到)(51.8%,而)(随)(着)(之)(后)(几)(年)(人)(口)(流)(入)(的)(增)(加)(,尤)(其)(是)(2011年)(之)(后)(德)(国)(向)(新)(加)(入)(欧)(盟)(的)(中)(东)(欧)(成)(员)(国)(放)(开)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(,德)(国)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(的)(上)(升)(显)(著)(放)(缓)(,15年)(仅)(比)(11年)(高)(了)(不)(到)(0.5%。
与)(其)(他)(欧)(洲)(主)(要)(国)(家)(横)(向)(比)(较)(,德)(国)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(维)(持)(在)(了)(较)(低)(位)(置)(,而)(经)(济)(表)(现)(也)(更)(为)(强)(劲)(。德)(国)(是)(近)(年)(主)(要)(欧)(洲)(国)(家)(中)(唯)(一)(一)(个)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(的)(国)(家)(,截)(至)(16年)(,其)(人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(为)(52.2%,略)(高)(于)(西)(班)(牙)(、显)(著)(低)(于)(英)(、法)(、意)(等)(国)(。而)(从)(经)(济)(表)(现)(来)(看)(,德)(国)(GDP增)(速)(也)(显)(著)(高)(于)(法)(国)(和)(意)(大)(利)(,失)(业)(率)(更)(是)(只)(有)(3.9%,远)(低)(于)(其)(他)(国)(家)(。
英)(国)(跟)(德)(国)(一)(样)(,也)(是)(欧)(洲)(的)(移)(民)(大)(国)(,移)(民)(是)(其)(最)(近)(二)(十)(年)(劳)(动)(力)(增)(量)(的)(主)(要)(来)(源)(。16年)(初)(英)(国)(的)(外)(出)(生)(人)(口)(数)(量)(略)(低)(于)(德)(国)(,但)(占)(总)(人)(口)(的)(比)(重)(与)(德)(国)(相)(近)(。并)(且)(英)(国)(老)(龄)(化)(也)(很)(严)(重)(,65岁)(以)(上)(人)(口)(占)(比)(高)(达)(17.9%,人)(口)(抚)(养)(比)(超)(过)(55%。对)(比)(1995年)(和)(2016年)(的)(数)(据)(,英)(国)(出)(生)(的)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(仅)(增)(加)(20万)(,而)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(移)(民)(从)(300万)(增)(加)(到)(740万)(,贡)(献)(了)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(的)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(增)(量)(。
劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(放)(开)(后)(,欧)(盟)(移)(民)(对)(英)(国)(经)(济)(带)(来)(了)(积)(极)(贡)(献)(。04年)(英)(国)(对)(欧)(盟)(的)(中)(东)(欧)(新)(成)(员)(国)(放)(开)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(,欧)(盟)(移)(民)(占)(比)(从)(04年)(之)(前)(的)(不)(足)(10%大)(幅)(提)(升)(到)(15年)(的)(49%。Dustmann和)(Frattini(2014)的)(研)(究)(发)(现)(,来)(自)(欧)(盟)(的)(移)(民)(通)(过)(纳)(税)(给)(英)(国)(财)(政)(的)(贡)(献)(,超)(过)(了)(其)(福)(利)(的)(净)(索)(取)(。此)(外)(,欧)(盟)(移)(民)(的)(教)(育)(背)(景)(也)(更)(好)(,接)(受)(教)(育)(到)(21岁)(以)(上)(的)(人)(口)(占)(比)(达)(45%,几)(乎)(是)(英)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(这)(一)(比)(例)(的)(两)(倍)(,因)(而)(对)(于)(提)(高)(劳)(动)(生)(产)(率)(也)(有)(着)(积)(极)(的)(意)(义)(。
所)(以)(这)(也)(正)(是)(英)(国)(16年)(脱)(欧)(公)(投)(后)(,市)(场)(担)(忧)(的)(一)(个)(主)(要)(来)(源)(。16年)(6月)(英)(国)(公)(投)(的)(脱)(欧)(结)(果)(导)(致)(英)(镑)(“闪)(崩)(”,而)(汇)(率)(最)(终)(体)(现)(的)(是)(不)(同)(国)(家)(实)(力)(的)(对)(比)(,英)(国)(脱)(欧)(一)(旦)(实)(施)(,欧)(盟)(劳)(动)(力)(的)(自)(由)(流)(动)(也)(将)(受)(影)(响)(,英)(镑)(的)(走)(弱)(说)(明)(了)(市)(场)(对)(英)(国)(脱)(欧)(之)(后)(经)(济)(不)(确)(定)(性)(的)(担)(忧)(。在)(这)(种)(担)(忧)(下)(,16年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(英)(国)(的)(PMI回)(升)(明)(显)(慢)(于)(其)(他)(国)(家)(,17年)(6月)(英)(国)(制)(造)(业)(PMI回)(落)(到)(54.3%,不)(仅)(与)(德)(国)(差)(距)(扩)(大)(,更)(小)(幅)(不)(及)(法)(国)(、意)(大)(利)(。
4.2潜)(在)(冲)(突)(之)(忧)(
移)(民)(的)(增)(加)(也)(带)(来)(一)(些)(担)(忧)(。一)(方)(面)(,开)(放)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(,引)(起)(了)(对)(本)(国)(居)(民)(的)(就)(业)(和)(工)(资)(产)(生)(冲)(击)(的)(疑)(虑)(。增)(加)(劳)(动)(力)(供)(给)(有)(助)(于)(提)(高)(总)(产)(出)(,但)(是)(供)(给)(增)(加)(也)(意)(味)(着)(可)(能)(导)(致)(竞)(争)(增)(加)(或)(者)(工)(资)(降)(低)(,并)(且)(对)(低)(端)(劳)(动)(市)(场)(的)(冲)(击)(可)(能)(更)(大)(。这)(也)(是)(英)(国)(脱)(欧)(支)(持)(者)(的)(主)(要)(理)(由)(。不)(过)(这)(种)(影)(响)(一)(直)(存)(在)(着)(争)(论)(,而)(从)(根)(本)(上)(讲)(,当)(地)(的)(经)(济)(情)(况)(和)(劳)(动)(力)(需)(求)(对)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(的)(决)(定)(性)(作)(用)(更)(大)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,不)(同)(来)(源)(的)(移)(民)(意)(味)(着)(不)(同)(的)(文)(化)(背)(景)(需)(要)(融)(合)(和)(形)(成)(认)(同)(,但)(全)(球)(恐)(怖)(主)(义)(活)(动)(频)(发)(大)(大)(增)(加)(了)(问)(题)(的)(复)(杂)(性)(。15年)(以)(来)(中)(东)(、北)(非)(局)(势)(动)(荡)(,大)(量)(难)(民)(涌)(入)(欧)(洲)(,而)(随)(之)(频)(发)(的)(恶)(劣)(治)(安)(事)(件)(乃)(至)(恐)(怖)(袭)(击)(,威)(胁)(了)(社)(会)(稳)(定)(,挫)(伤)(了)(经)(济)(活)(动)(秩)(序)(,处)(理)(不)(好)(此)(类)(问)(题)(容)(易)(激)(化)(矛)(盾)(,促)(使)(民)(粹)(主)(义)(滋)(生)(壮)(大)(,反)(过)(来)(又)(不)(利)(于)(欧)(盟)(整)(体)(性)(的)(维)(护)(、阻)(碍)(劳)(动)(力)(自)(由)(流)(动)(。
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