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2018年中国房地产最大风险隐患在哪里?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月16日 02:39:42
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(面)(对)(世)(行)(和)(法)(国)(知)(名)(投)(行)(对)(中)(国)(高)(房)(价)(发)(出)(的)(警)(告)(,国)(内)(经)(济)(学)(家)(并)(不)(以)(为)(然)(,他)(们)(认)(为)(,在)(中)(国)(不)(太)(可)(能)(发)(生)(像)(美)(国)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(那)(样)(的)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(,其)(背)(后)(原)(因)(有)(二)(:一)(方)(面)(,新)(年)(伊)(始)(,多)(个)(地)(方)(政)(府)(通)(过)(解)(除)(限)(购)(令)(,重)(启)(需)(求)(的)(方)(式)(,来)(降)(低)(市)(场)(的)(下)(行)(风)(险)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(推)(迟)(出)(台)(一)(项)(预)(期)(的)(房)(产)(税)(,该)(税)(项)(虽)(可)(抑)(制)(投)(机)(行)(为)(但)(会)(对)(房)(价)(造)(成)(打)(压)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,美)(国)(的)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(爆)(发)(,根)(源)(在)(于)(美)(国)(两)(大)(房)(产)(金)(融)(机)(构)(房)(利)(美)(、房)(贷)(美)(把)(低)(收)(入)(且)(零)(首)(付)(群)(体)(的)(房)(贷)(合)(约)(打)(包)(成)(次)(级)(债)(券)(,在)(资)(本)(市)(场)(上)(出)(售)(。而)(一)(旦)(那)(些)(零)(首)(付)(的)(低)(收)(入)(群)(体)(还)(不)(出)(房)(贷)(就)(选)(择)(断)(供)(弃)(房)(,这)(样)(会)(危)(及)(经)(济)(。而)(现)(在)(中)(国)(房)(贷)(市)(场)(并)(没)(有)(像)(美)(国)(那)(样)(拥)(有)(各)(种)(繁)(杂)(的)(金)(融)(衍)(生)(品)(,所)(以)(即)(使)(发)(生)(局)(部)(性)(风)(险)(,也)(不)(会)(拖)(累)(中)(国)(经)(济)(。
对)(此)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(最)(大)(风)(险)(来)(自)(于)(房)(地)(产)(,而)(房)(地)(产)(业)(最)(大)(的)(风)(险)(来)(源)(于)(房)(价)(下)(行)(的)(风)(险)(。因)(为)(在)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(之)(时)(,所)(有)(问)(题)(都)(可)(以)(隐)(藏)(起)(来)(,而)(一)(旦)(房)(价)(出)(现)(下)(跌)(,诸)(多)(金)(融)(风)(险)(就)(会)(集)(中)(爆)(发)(。那)(么)(,中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(最)(大)(隐)(患)(究)(竟)(隐)(藏)(在)(哪)(里)(呢)(?
首)(先)(,正)(如)(世)(行)(报)(告)(所)(言)(,中)(国)(一)(线)(城)(市)(的)(高)(房)(价)(跌)(幅)(在)(个)(位)(数)(问)(题)(并)(不)(大)(,最)(可)(怕)(的)(是)(房)(价)(跌)(幅)(超)(过)(20%以)(上)(。届)(时)(就)(可)(能)(会)(有)(弃)(房)(断)(供)(的)(情)(况)(不)(断)(出)(现)(。原)(因)(很)(简)(单)(,房)(贷)(利)(率)(不)(断)(上)(调)(,压)(得)(购)(房)(者)(透)(不)(过)(气)(来)(,再)(加)(上)(购)(房)(者)(的)(首)(付)(比)(例)(相)(当)(的)(低)(,过)(去)(一)(般)(只)(要)(有)(20%至)(30%的)(首)(付)(款)(就)(可)(以)(炒)(房)(。所)(以)(“高)(杠)(杆)(+涨)(息)(”将)(是)(压)(跨)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(的)(最)(后)(一)(根)(稻)(草)(。
再)(者)(,去)(年)(一)(线)(城)(市)(周)(边)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(涨)(势)(惊)(人)(。受)(到)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(的)(影)(响)(,大)(量)(资)(金)(涌)(向)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(购)(房)(。但)(问)(题)(是)(,这)(些)(买)(家)(购)(房)(并)(不)(是)(为)(了)(自)(己)(居)(住)(,而)(是)(为)(了)(将)(来)(能)(有)(更)(高)(的)(价)(格)(出)(售)(。从)(表)(面)(上)(看)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(去)(库)(存)(获)(得)(了)(超)(预)(期)(的)(效)(果)(。但)(实)(际)(上)(,房)(子)(都)(给)(投)(机)(者)(买)(去)(了)(,一)(旦)(他)(们)(看)(不)(到)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(预)(期)(,就)(会)(大)(量)(抛)(售)(房)(源)(,造)(成)(之)(前)(上)(涨)(过)(大)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(出)(现)(大)(调)(整)(。
对)(此)(,我)(们)(的)(预)(测)(是)(,2018年)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(出)(现)(回)(落)(无)(可)(避)(免)(,只)(是)(房)(价)(跌)(多)(跌)(少)(而)(已)(。前)(期)(购)(房)(者)(如)(果)(希)(望)(自)(己)(手)(中)(的)(房)(产)(比)(较)(抗)(跌)(,那)(最)(好)(是)(你)(拥)(有)(距)(离)(一)(线)(城)(市)(不)(超)(过)(90分)(钟)(路)(程)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(产)(,同)(时)(周)(边)(基)(础)(设)(施)(配)(套)(还)(要)(比)(较)(完)(善)(,人)(口)(流)(入)(大)(于)(流)(出)(,且)(自)(住)(率)(起)(码)(达)(到)(60%以)(上)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(。
最)(后)(,通)(过)(消)(费)(贷)(、现)(金)(贷)(、装)(修)(贷)(等)(途)(径)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(领)(域)(的)(资)(金)(,去)(年)(上)(半)(年)(,房)(地)(产)(丝)(毫)(没)(受)(调)(控)(的)(影)(响)(,依)(然)(十)(分)(火)(爆)(。这)(主)(要)(是)(很)(多)(连)(购)(房)(首)(付)(款)(都)(拿)(不)(出)(的)(家)(庭)(,因)(害)(怕)(房)(价)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,自)(己)(沦)(为)(越)(涨)(越)(买)(不)(起)(房)(一)(族)(,只)(能)(通)(过)(消)(费)(贷)(、现)(金)(贷)(的)(途)(径)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(。
而)(这)(种)(短)(期)(的)(债)(务)(与)(房)(贷)(的)(长)(期)(属)(性)(根)(本)(不)(匹)(配)(,迟)(早)(会)(发)(生)(不)(可)(控)(的)(金)(融)(风)(险)(。尽)(管)(我)(国)(的)(监)(管)(部)(门)(出)(重)(拳)(先)(后)(对)(消)(费)(贷)(、首)(付)(贷)(、现)(金)(贷)(流)(入)(房)(地)(产)(资)(金)(进)(行)(打)(击)(,导)(致)(这)(些)(资)(金)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(的)(途)(径)(被)(封)(闭)(,但)(之)(前)(有)(多)(少)(消)(费)(贷)(、现)(金)(贷)(等)(资)(金)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(领)(域)(?隐)(藏)(了)(何)(种)(不)(确)(定)(风)(险)(?我)(们)(对)(此)(一)(无)(所)(知)(。
世)(行)(和)(法)(国)(巴)(黎)(银)(行)(对)(我)(国)(楼)(市)(进)(行)(预)(警)(。而)(国)(内)(专)(家)(辩)(称)(,中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(绝)(不)(会)(达)(到)(美)(国)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(烈)(度)(。我)(们)(却)(认)(为)(,今)(年)(是)(政)(府)(防)(控)(风)(险)(的)(关)(键)(之)(年)(,既)(要)(防)(控)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(过)(快)(下)(滑)(,又)(要)(严)(控)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(崩)(盘)(,更)(要)(彻)(底)(封)(闭)(消)(费)(贷)(、现)(金)(贷)(等)(资)(金)(流)(向)(房)(地)(产)(的)(通)(道)(,给)(房)(地)(产)(降)(杠)(杆)(,任)(重)(而)(道)(远)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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